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Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Ranks and Probability in the Match

Previously, we looked at USMLE scores, AOA status, and PhD degrees for US seniors who matched in 2014.  Today we will discuss contiguous ranks for the match and examine how well US seniors matched in 2014 for each specialty.  Typically, the more competitive and smaller specialties require higher contiguous ranks for the probability of matching to reach greater than 95%.  This of course is aggregate statistics.  It does not directly account for individual characteristics such as USMLE score, medical school grades, or interview performance.  It only accounts for the number of ranks (which is obviously tied to the number of interviews received).  There will be applicants who rank one program and match and applicants who rank 20 programs and do not match.  In general, students should try to attend as many interviews as they can in order to increase their match success.  Click here for a full discussion on the meaning of contiguous ranks to achieve greater than 95% match rate.  There is no contiguous ranks data for Ophthalmology and Urology.


Specialty
Contiguous Ranks
Neurological Surgery
>20
Plastic Surgery
16
Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
15
Orthopaedic Surgery
14
General Surgery
13
Otolaryngology
13
Dermatology
11
Obstetrics and Gynecology
11
Child Neurology
11
Radiation Oncology
10
Emergency Medicine
9
Anesthesiology
8
Pediatrics
8
Neurology
7
Vascular Surgery
7
Diagnostic Radiology
6
Internal Medicine/Pediatrics
6
Internal Medicine
6
Psychiatry
6
Family Medicine
6
Pathology
5


Specialty
Match Rate
Urology
68%
Plastic Surgery
71%
Otolaryngology
75%
Dermatology
76%
Orthopaedic Surgery
77%
Neurological Surgery
79%
General Surgery
85%
Radiation Oncology
89%
Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
89%
Vascular Surgery
89%
Ophthalmology
91%
Obstetrics and Gynecology
91%
Child Neurology
91%
Emergency Medicine
93%
Internal Medicine/Pediatrics
96%
Pediatrics
96%
Psychiatry
96%
Anesthesiology
96%
Family Medicine
96%
Internal Medicine
97%
Neurology
97%
Pathology
98%
Diagnostic Radiology
99%


Source 1:  Charting Outcomes in the Match, 2014
Source 2:  SF Match Residency and Fellowship Matching Services
Source 3:  American Urological Association


In comparison to 2011 for the most competitive specialties, Dermatology, Otolaryngology, and Neurological Surgery have become more competitive.  Plastic Surgery, General Surgery, and Radiation Oncology are now less competitive.  Urology has replaced Plastic Surgery as the most competitive specialty.


Match Spotlight for US Seniors

2014 statistics for US Seniors

2013 statistics for IMGs

Monday, October 13, 2014

Percentage AOA and PhD in the Match

In addition to USMLE scores, Alpha Omega Alpha (AOA) honors can help a medical student's residency application stand out, especially in the more competitive specialties.  Some specialties also tend to have more PhD graduates than others.  Listed below are the percentage of 2014 matched US seniors with AOA or PhD within each specialty.  Ophthalmology and Urology are not part of the NRMP match and no statistics were available.


Specialty
Percent AOA
Dermatology
50.8%
Plastic Surgery
39.0%
Otolaryngology
38.9%
Orthopaedic Surgery
32.2%
Neurological Surgery
28.3%
Radiation Oncology
23.6%
Vascular Surgery
22.6%
Internal Medicine/Pediatrics
22.1%
Diagnostic Radiology
21.8%
Child Neurology
20.0%
Internal Medicine
16.4%
Average
16.0%
General Surgery
15.3%
Pediatrics
12.9%
Neurology
12.8%
Obstetrics and Gynecology
12.6%
Emergency Medicine
12.0%
Pathology
11.0%
Anesthesiology
10.6%
Family Medicine
8.0%
Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
5.5%
Psychiatry
4.9%


Specialty
Percent PhD
Radiation Oncology
23.0%
Pathology
22.0%
Child Neurology
18.7%
Neurological Surgery
12.8%
Vascular Surgery
9.7%
Neurology
8.9%
Dermatology
5.1%
Diagnostic Radiology
4.6%
Psychiatry
4.5%
Plastic Surgery
4.2%
Internal Medicine
4.2%
Average
3.9%
Pediatrics
3.5%
Anesthesiology
3.5%
Internal Medicine/Pediatrics
2.6%
Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
2.5%
General Surgery
2.0%
Otolaryngology
1.9%
Obstetrics and Gynecology
1.7%
Orthopaedic Surgery
1.4%
Emergency Medicine
1.1%
Family Medicine
1.0%


Source:  Charting Outcomes in the Match, 2014


Compared to 2011 statistics, the overall AOA percentage increased by 1.0% and overall PhD percentage decreased by 0.5%.  Dermatology and the surgical subspecialties have the highest percentage of AOA students.  Radiation Oncology and Pathology tend to have the highest percentage of PhD graduates.


Match Spotlight for US Seniors

2014 statistics for US Seniors

2013 statistics for IMGs

Sunday, October 12, 2014

USMLE Scores in the Match

NRMP's Charting Outcomes in the Match released the average 2014 statistics for US seniors who matched into residency.  Listed below are the average USMLE STEP 1 and STEP 2 scores for each specialty.  Ophthalmology and Urology are not part of the NRMP match.  Only the average STEP 1 score for Ophthalmology is available through the SF Match.  STEP 1 and STEP 2 scores for Urology are not available.


Specialty
Mean STEP 1
Otolaryngology
248
Dermatology
247
Plastic Surgery
245
Orthopaedic Surgery
245
Neurological Surgery
244
Ophthalmology
242
Diagnostic Radiology
241
Radiation Oncology
241
Vascular Surgery
237
Internal Medicine/Pediatrics
233
General Surgery
232
Internal Medicine
231
Pathology
231
Anesthesiology
230
Average
230
Neurology
230
Emergency Medicine
230
Child Neurology
229
Pediatrics
226
Obstetrics and Gynecology
226
Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
220
Psychiatry
220
Family Medicine
218


Specialty
Mean STEP 2
Dermatology
255
Otolaryngology
252
Plastic Surgery
252
Orthopaedic Surgery
251
Vascular Surgery
250
Diagnostic Radiology
249
Radiation Oncology
248
Neurological Surgery
247
Internal Medicine/Pediatrics
245
General Surgery
245
Internal Medicine
243
Average
243
Emergency Medicine
243
Obstetrics and Gynecology
242
Anesthesiology
241
Pediatrics
241
Neurology
241
Pathology
241
Child Neurology
240
Family Medicine
234
Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
234
Psychiatry
233


Source 1:  Charting Outcomes in the Match, 2014
Source 2:  SF Match Residency and Fellowship Matching Services


Looking back at 2011 statistics, you will notice that the average USMLE STEP 1 and STEP 2 scores for matched US seniors have increased by 4 and 8 points, respectively.  The average STEP 1 score for every specialty has gone up except Plastic Surgery (which is still pretty high and part of it could be due to low sample size). Average STEP 2 scores increased for every specialty.  My hypothesis is that score inflation over time could be attributed to better test preparation, similar to what happened with the MCAT and the SAT.


Match Spotlight for US Seniors

2014 statistics for US Seniors

2013 statistics for IMGs

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Match Spotlight: Urology

For everyday over the next few weeks, we will put the spotlight on a different residency specialty.  Today's spotlight will be on Urology.  Please note that these are just aggregate statistics and your match results may vary.


Urology does not participate in the NRMP Match and therefore its STEP 1 and STEP 2 scores were not available in Charting Outcomes in the Match, 2014.  However, if I had to guess, the scores would be similar to other surgical subspecialties such as Otolaryngology or Orthopedic Surgery.

Match rate:  68%

Source:  American Urological Association


Top 10 Urology residency programs:

1. Cleveland Clinic Foundation Program

2. Johns Hopkins University Program

3. Vanderbilt University Program

4. UCLA Medical Center Program

5. University of California (San Francisco) Program

6. Mayo Clinic College of Medicine (Rochester) Program

7. University of Michigan Program

8. University of Texas Southwestern Medical School Program

9. New York Presbyterian Hospital (Cornell Campus) Program

10. McGaw Medical Center of Northwestern University Program

Monday, October 6, 2014

Match Spotlight: Radiation Oncology

For everyday over the next few weeks, we will put the spotlight on a different residency specialty.  Today's spotlight will be on Radiation Oncology.  Please note that these are just aggregate statistics and your match results may vary.


Average 2014 statistics for US seniors who matched (average for all specialties in parenthesis):

STEP 1:  241 (230)
STEP 2:  248 (243)

Percent AOA:  23.6% (16.0%)
Percent PhD:  23.0% (3.9%)

Contiguous ranks to achieve > 95% match rate*:  10
Match rate:  89%

Source:  Charting Outcomes in the Match, 2014
*See explanation here in prior post.


Top 10 Radiation Oncology residency programs:

1. University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center Program

2. Brigham and Women's Hospital/Massachusetts General Hospital/Harvard Medical School Program

3. Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Program

4. University of California (San Francisco) Program

5. Stanford University Program

6. University of Michigan Program

7. University of Pennsylvania Program

8. Washington University/B-JH/SLCH Consortium Program

9 (tie). Duke University Hospital Program

9 (tie). Mayo Clinic College of Medicine (Rochester) Program

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Match Spotlight: Psychiatry

For everyday over the next few weeks, we will put the spotlight on a different residency specialty.  Today's spotlight will be on Psychiatry.  Please note that these are just aggregate statistics and your match results may vary.


Average 2014 statistics for US seniors who matched (average for all specialties in parenthesis):

STEP 1:  220 (230)
STEP 2:  233 (243)

Percent AOA:  4.9% (16.0%)
Percent PhD:  4.5% (3.9%)

Contiguous ranks to achieve > 95% match rate*:  6
Match rate:  96%

Source:  Charting Outcomes in the Match, 2014
*See explanation here in prior post.


Top 10 Psychiatry residency programs:

1. Massachusetts General Hospital/McLean Hospital Program

2. New York Presbyterian Hospital (Columbia Campus)/New York State Psychiatric Institute Program

3. Yale-New Haven Medical Center Program

4. UCLA Medical Center Program

5. Johns Hopkins University Program

6. University of California (San Francisco) Program

7. UPMC Medical Education Program

8. Brigham and Women's Hospital/Harvard Medical School Program

9 (tie). New York Presbyterian Hospital (Cornell Campus) Program

9 (tie). New York University School of Medicine Program